Isaacs – Australia 2022

Unless this seat includes Beaumaris.. it will be labor

I would laugh like hell if One National preferenced Australian Labor Party In Longman and that made the difference between Albanese and Morrison being PM. I don’t think there is much to chose between them but suspect that most PHON voters are disenchanted Liberals certainly she is just a Liberal with a big mouth.

@PJ

I’m not sure what happens next. It “can” result in jail time, as far as I know, but that may require the AEC wanting to go down that road. Dunno.

What’s happening with Rod Culleton in WA? His crime – nominating when he was clearly disqualified, as he seems to think his bankruptcy goes away if he doesn’t think about it – seems to be more likely to be investigated.

I don’t think they actually can kick anyone off the ballot at this point, as postals have already started going out.

Sorry that should have been in Longman.

@Mick

Beaumaris will probably be on the ZD wagon this time (even moreso than the rest of Goldstein), so we’ll see about that…

I can see a future redistribution where Isaacs move northwards to take in all of Kingston LGA, while losing its Dandenong end east of the Eastlink. Especially if Hotham is abolished, as some have suggested.

@MQ, This seat is winnable even if it does not include Beaumaris. See my comments earlier in the thread. Note on the current boundries it would have been won by the Libs in 2004. Also look at the corresponding state electorates at competitive state elections such as 2010 and 2014 and how these areas are very close and sometimes even more Liberal than the state-wide vote. The Coastal suburbs of Kingston LGA are becoming more affluent similar to Georges River area in the federal electorate of Banks Also note Issacs is in the top 1/3 of seats for SEIFA ranking- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-03/fact-check-barnaby-joyce-poorest-electorates/11437932. Its really on the Greater Dandenong area that is solidly Labor. If a future redistribution removes Dandenong and includes all of Kingston LGA it will likely remain Labor leaning as the part of Kingston LGA north of Dingley Bypass is solidly working class and industrial similar to Monash LGA south of the Monash freeway.

Have heard little bits about this around the traps. Not sure it’s going away.

https://baysidenews.com.au/2022/05/04/liberal-candidate-caught-in-enrolment-blunder/?amp

Statement from AEC on Mr Robbie Beaton https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2022/05-06a.htm

Beaton’s HTV is here: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=153254433876396&set=a.111979358003904

Greens last, Labor second last. One Nation above both. Not that it will likely matter but 2nd pref to LibDems and 3rd pref to Palmer. Then Animal Justice.

So…. AFP are investigating Beaton. Interesting to see if they charge him, question may be whether they deem it was deliberate.

Surely Lobo is cooked in Lilley though.

I don’t know how deep the AFP investigates but a shallow dig of social media shows Beaton saying he lives in aspendale, not Camberwell.

Ben may be able to say, I assume you put your address on a piece of paper when you nominate to run? Surely that’s a smoking gun there? It’s not like he can forget where he lives.

In any case, Beaton has got zero election commitments I can see for Isaacs. Looks like Libs focussing on neighbouring seats of Goldstein, Chisholm and (interestingly) Dunkley.

This seat is interesting as it had the identical result for the Republic (adjusted to current boundaries) to the Voice referendum 50.6% Yes, which is interesting considering the Voice result was much worse both nationally and statewide. This area has gentrified a lot in the last 24 years but the Bayside suburbs have not really become more ethnically diverse in this time period in stark contrast the rest of Greater Melbourne. The Seaford booths in neighboring Dunkely have also shown a strong Yes vote. It also shows the increase in education levels along the Sandbelt. All the Bayside suburbs from Mentone to Frankston votes Yes it was only Dingley Village and Paterson Lakes more inland which voted No (These two suburbs have an older age demographic)/

Sorry Nimalan, I live in this side of Melbourne and you are plane wrong …in short this is not Melbourne’s answer to the Shire…… a more nuanced reflection would have also considered the southwards growth of the Eruv since the late 1990’s.

Because of the Eruv, you can’t just look at the booth results (which typically overreports the ALP vote) you have to look at the postal votes as well….and the northern parts of Isaacs crosses into the southern section of Eruv.

I wonder if Dandenong South and Keysborough would finally be moved out of Isaac’s given it lacks the community interest with Frankston Line Suburbs? Keysborough is more associated with Springvale with a large SE Asian community although with higher like Endeavour Hills whereas Dandenong South is working class with a large Albanian and Afghan Community so it more associated with Dandenong.

@marh doubtful I’ve given isaccs the rest of Kingston from Hotham and push the areas south of Patterson’s River to dunkley. There simply isn’t enough voters in Kingston lga to ,are up a division

@Marh only 125 people live in Dandenong South, hard to really characterise the suburb demographically on those numbers.

@Adam my mistake, I meant the area south of Dandenong Station. It used to be part of Dandenong South but then was moved into Dandenong. ABS lists the area I meant as Dandenong – South SA2 and it mostly Muslims of Albanian and Afghan origin

Source: https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/212041564

“Dandenong South” tends to be used to refer to Dandenong south of the rail line, even though technically Dandenong South is an industrial suburb south and east of this area.

If a seat like Higgins was abolished, perhaps Isaacs could move up the coast to take in more of Cheltenham, Black Rock, Beaumaris, etc, and then lose all of its ‘inland’ component.

That would probably be the ideal arrangement for Isaacs. Not sure how likely that is, though.

@mark mulcair i doubt higgins will be abolished. ideally the highest under quota should be but given that is aston and thats perfectly situated in the knox lga i oubt that will happen

Another suggestion would be to abolish Casey with it being replaced with Deakin, La Tribe, Aston and perhaps even McEwen as Antony Green suggested

@marh i prefer to abolish jagajaga

@John, I wouldn’t support abolishing Jagajajga for a similar reason why I wouldn’t support abolishing Aston because the boundaries are already the best for community of interest

Well it’s probably gonna happen one way or the other regardless if it’s called jagjagjaga or not. In reality I’ve abolished Menzies but transferred the name

Now that Isaac’s not only retains the Muslim Majority Dandenong South but adds in more areas with sizeable Muslim Percentages like Noble Park whilst Mark Dreyfus is Jewish, I wonder how if it affects the TPP margin let alone the primary vote? Would some Muslims want to oust a Jewish MP?

@Marh if they ousted an MP simply because he’s Jewish then that would be antisemitic.

I agree with Nether Portal
A few points
1.The boundaries make it safer for Labor by adding poorer working class ethnic suburbs.
2. This seat is too mixed and has a decent Liberal vote for either the Greens or a Muslim Community independent.
3. I do agree it contains Muslim Majority Dandenong South and areas like Noble Park with a sizable Muslim community. However, next point is important
4 The Beachside suburbs are among the least Muslim in Melbourne and infact parts of the sandbelt have a Jewish community. I very much doubt Anglo Liberal residents along the bay will tactically vote for a Muslim community candidate to oust Dreyfus.
5. The Liberals are not going to mention Dreyfus’s religion in any of the campaigning or Palestine.
6.The Albanian community which large in Dandenong South will not be as Pro-Palestine as other Muslim groups. They tend to be secular and Pro-Western due to Kosovo.

@Nimalan interestingly Muslims from Albania and the former Yugoslavia (Bosnia and Kosovo are majority-Muslim while Macedonia has a large Muslim population) often even drink alcohol and eat pork, something African, Arab and Asian Muslims don’t do often. In fact you’re probably more likely to find a Muslim in Albania that eats pork and drinks alcohol than you are a Muslim in Australia or France or the UK since Australian Muslims are mostly Arabs, British Muslims are mostly from South Asia and French Muslims are usually from Africa (North Africa specifically, i.e Algeria, Morocco, etc since they were former French colonies and they learn Arabic, English and French at school).

@ Nether Portal
You are 100% correct that is my experience of Eastern European muslims as well while they identify as Muslims and are members of Mosques they very lax about religious practice such as pork, alcohol, gambling, dressing etc. I think it is mainly because those people have been living in a Christian majority region so are influenced by their neighbors. Also all those countries have governments that are strictly secular. Albanians are also proud of their religious tolerance and diversity. Mother Teresa is a national icon and the main airport is named after her. Interesting, relating to Jews during the World War 2 Albania ended up with more Jews at the end of the war then before the start as Albanians sheltered Jews from neighboring countries as well as Albanian Jews and refused to turn them over to the Nazi occupiers. This why i dont feel they will vote to oust Dreyfus simply due to his religion.